The Carney Government Presses Ahead on Its Stated Course

Dr. You-Zhi Tang｜October 24, 2026

According to a Canadian government announcement on October 23, Carney is actively promoting the export of Canadian CANDU nuclear reactor technology to Türkiye and appears to have made substantive progress. This is a story well worth watching!

On October 22–23, Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Türkiye and held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This was the first dedicated bilateral visit to Türkiye by a Canadian prime minister. The two sides announced a new strategic partnership, covering energy, defence, trade and investment — with nuclear cooperation the most eye-catching element.

Speaking in Istanbul on October 23, Carney said Canada’s CANDU technology has “good chances” of winning a Turkish nuclear project. He stressed that a year ago, the project’s prospects for Canada looked remote; now negotiations are deepening. Carney expects Türkiye may decide around the end of this year. This is not a signed construction contract — it means Canada is now in a competitive field of candidates.

So what exactly is Canada competing for? Türkiye is developing nuclear power on a large scale. There are currently three main nuclear projects:

Canada’s AtkinsRéalis, the former SNC-Lavalin — is pursuing opportunities in the latter two projects, with Sinop the clearest opening at present. The competitors are: 1) Canada: CANDU; 2) South Korea: Korean Nuclear Technology; 3) China: State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC); 4) Russia: Rosatom; 5) Japan: also listed as a potential contender. In March this year, Canada’s Candu Energy signed a memorandum of understanding with Türkiye’s nuclear energy agency. On October 23, the chief executive of AtkinsRéalis confirmed that the company will carry out a feasibility study for using CANDU technology at the Sinop project.

Why does CANDU have a chance? In my view, three factors are worth noting. First, Türkiye wants to diversify its nuclear technology. Its first nuclear plant is being built by Russia. If the second one also uses Russian technology, Türkiye could become overly dependent on Russia for nuclear fuel, equipment supply and technical services. Canada offers a different option. Second, CANDU has distinctive technological advantages. It uses a heavy-water-moderated, pressure-tube design and can run on natural uranium, without the uranium enrichment that most light-water reactors require. For a country looking to strengthen its energy autonomy, that is a significant advantage. CANDU also has its own challenges, however, including the heavy-water system, construction costs, financing and supply-chain development. Third, Carney is elevating Canadian nuclear industry exports to the level of national strategy. The nuclear strategy the Canadian government released this year proposes entering at least four new international markets by 2040. The Türkiye project is therefore not simply a commercial bid; it is an important step in the Canadian nuclear industry’s return to international markets.

Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Tim Hodgson, accompanied Carney to Türkiye and signed a joint statement on energy cooperation with Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar. The statement covers nuclear energy, LNG, renewable energy and critical minerals. The Turkish energy minister noted in particular that the two sides had focused on the feasibility of applying Canadian CANDU technology in Türkiye. This shows that nuclear cooperation has moved from company-level technical contacts to a stage driven directly by the two governments.

My observation is that Carney’s energy and economic strategy has a clear through-line. We have discussed Carney’s “Build, Build, Build” strategy several times recently, and how Canada can raise productivity and reduce dependence on the U.S. market. This Türkiye trip offers a new angle: Canada must not only build infrastructure and energy projects at home, but also export its own technology, engineering capabilities and industrial system to international markets. The two reinforce each other.

Domestic nuclear projects sustain and develop technological capability, engineering talent and supply chains; international projects help expand industrial scale and improve competitiveness. If Canada wins the Turkish nuclear contract, its significance would go beyond a potential engineering market worth tens of billions of Canadian dollars — it could help the Canadian nuclear industry re-establish its international influence.

Of course, neither the contract value nor Canada’s actual share of the work can be determined yet. What I think is truly worth watching is that Carney is trying to convert Canada’s energy resource advantage into advantages in technology, engineering, manufacturing and international trade. That has more strategic value than simply expanding energy exports. But the caution we discussed before still applies: Follow the Money — and even more, Follow the Productivity.

Winning a major international project matters, but in the end what counts is whether it can create sustained technological innovation, industrial development and high-value-added jobs for Canada.

Next, it is worth watching that COP31 will be held in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20 this year. Carney has said Türkiye may decide on the nuclear project around year-end. I am particularly watching three questions:

1. Can Canada compete with South Korea, China and Russia on financing terms?

2. What proportion of equipment and engineering will Türkiye require to be localized? And how many orders can Canadian companies actually secure?

3. If CANDU succeeds in entering Türkiye, can it further open up nuclear markets in the Middle East and Eastern Europe?

My preliminary judgment is that this may be one of the most important projects to track since Carney began pushing Canadian industrial internationalization. But for now, the commercial opportunity has improved significantly — it is not yet a done deal. What is particularly worth noting is that Canada is now competing directly with the nuclear industries of South Korea, China and Russia. The outcome of this competition will probably hinge not only on reactor technology itself, but on a combination of technology, financing, supply chains, government diplomacy and long-term strategic partnership capacity.

That is what makes this whole story so interesting.